11 April 2026
This week, we took a deep dive into critical global maritime chokepoints, with particular focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Basis international maritime law, transit fees are typically applicable only to artificial canals such as the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. Natural straits like the Strait of Hormuz are generally toll-free. A hypothetical toll of USD 2 Mn per vessel through the Strait of Hormuz could generate close to USD 100 Bn annually, (which is ~22–25% of Iran’s 2024 GDP).
11 April 2026
This week, we took a deep dive into critical global maritime chokepoints, with particular focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Basis international maritime law, transit fees are typically applicable only to artificial canals such as the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. Natural straits like the Strait of Hormuz are generally toll-free. A hypothetical toll of USD 2 Mn per vessel through the Strait of Hormuz could generate close to USD 100 Bn annually, (which is ~22–25% of Iran’s 2024 GDP).
04 April 2026
This week, we looked beyond crude oil and natural gas to understand the broader ripple effects of the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict on global gas supplies. One of the lesser-discussed but critical disruptions is in helium supply, particularly from Qatar, which accounts for roughly 30–36% of global production, alongside the United States. Asia appears to be the worst affected, followed by parts of Europe, as supply disruptions ripple through global trade channels.
28 March 2026
As we approach the close of FY2026, data present a compelling narrative of Indian equity markets: FIIs have been aggressive net sellers, offloading equities worth ~INR 12 lakh Cr (~USD 150 billion) over past 5 years; DIIs, a proxy to retail investors, have absorbed this supply, investing nearly INR 21 lakh Cr (~USD 265 billion) over the past 5 years; Nifty 50 has delivered CAGR returns of ~10% returns in INR terms and ~5% in USD terms over the last 3 years; Over the past year, the INR has depreciated more against the Chinese Yuan (~14%) than against the US Dollar (~10%) or British Pound (~12%); Developed economies like Japan and the UK are increasing exposure to US Treasuries.
21 March 2026
This week, it was almost impossible to focus on anything beyond the ongoing developments in the Iran–Israel conflict. Amid this backdrop, we explored an important question—whether global trade, particularly shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, could see a shift from the US Dollar toward the Chinese Yuan. While conversations around de-dollarization have grown louder over the past decade, the reality remains unchanged – The US Dollar continues to dominate global finance.
14 March 2026
This week, amid heightened uncertainty, we analyzed an India-centric economic issue – The rising trend of state-level welfare schemes targeted at women, often referred to as “freebies” or rewadis. At first glance these may seem small in the broader economic context, but allocations are now snowballing rapidly, raising investor concerns. Allocations have surged from just Rs 1,600 Cr in 2020 to ~ Rs 2.46 lakh Cr (~ $ 27 billion) today. Moreover, the number of states implementing such programs has increased significantly—from just two states in FY23 to twelve currently. Disclaimer: Views are completely apolitical.
07 March 2026
This week we examined the impact of unpredictable events that often unsettle financial markets – geopolitical conflicts, political and policy changes, corporate crises, and systemic financial disruptions. As per historical data, market reactions may be sharp in the immediate aftermath of a shock, but they are often short-lived. Though, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.
28 Feb 2026
Over the weekend, we reflected on several constructive developments that appear to be getting overshadowed by prevailing market pessimism – Strong earnings momentum across broader market companies; Record-high e-way bill generation, indicating resilient economic activity; Improvement in FII positioning (short exposure, which was above 90% a few months ago, has moderated to ~80%); Indian government’s push to strengthen global trade ties, with five major trade agreements signed in the last 6-7 months. Overall, the trajectory, at least directionally, is positive.
21 Feb 2026
This weekend, we closely examined the sharp rise in gold ETF flows. For the first time, in January 2026, India’s gold ETF inflows matched equity mutual fund inflows, reaching ~ Rs 24k crore, a significant signal of shifting investor preference. Historically, when flows begin building up in any ETF category, they tend to sustain for a period, largely supported by SIP allocations and systematic strategies. India now ranks sixth globally in terms of gold ETF holdings — a notable development in the evolving investment landscape.
14 Feb 2026
This week, we took a close look at the earnings for the quarter ending Dec ’25. With so much noise around an economic slowdown, reduced capital expenditure, and concerns over sluggish corporate earnings, it was important to separate perception from reality. Overall, the data indicates that corporate India continues to demonstrate strong resilience, outperforming the more cautious prevailing narrative.
07 Feb 2026
This week, we examined the long-anticipated trade deal between the U.S. and India, nearly 12 months in the making. Under the new arrangement, India’s tariff rate on U.S. trade has been reduced to 18% from 50%, the lowest across Asia. The announced country-level export commitment of USD 500 Bn is almost 12x current export levels. However, no specific timeline has been outlined yet, which tempers near-term expectations.
31 Jan 2026
This weekend, we delved into the India–EU trade agreement—arguably the mother of all deals. Collectively, the EU is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of nearly USD136 Bn, followed closely by the US at around USD 132 Bn in 2025.
24 Jan 2026
This weekend, we revisited Union Budgets from the past decade, focusing on budgeted capital expenditure (capex). Each year, the Union Budget outlines planned capex, setting the direction for investments across roads, infrastructure, defence, and allied sectors.
Over the last three years, a consistent pattern has emerged: actual capex outlays have fallen short of budgeted levels. In contrast, expenditure on grants has risen steadily—up nearly 76% between FY22 and FY26. What stands out is that election-related grants, which were earlier elevated mainly during general election years, are now increasingly prominent even around state assembly elections. This shift is beginning to crowd out actual infrastructure spending.
17 Jan 2026
This week, we analyzed the long–short positioning of FIIs. Currently, FII positioning in index futures stands at 9% longs and 91% shorts. Since July 2025, this has broadly remained within the 80–90% short range. Elevated geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and a slowdown in earnings have significantly influenced FIIs’ cautious stance on India. Historically, whenever the long–short ratio falls below 0.25x (currently at 0.10x), markets have tended to witness reversals in index returns over the following 3-month period. While it is difficult to pinpoint how much lower this ratio can go, the probability of a reversal appears to be rising in the coming months. Additionally, the RBI’s support to the rupee via the USD/INR swap mechanism is providing some stability, likely keeping the currency around the ~90 level.
10 Jan 2026
This weekend, we deep-dived into why US President Trump has shown interest in the territorial annexation of Greenland—the world’s largest island and an autonomous territory of Denmark. The United States has made several attempts in the past (dating back to 1867) to acquire Greenland. What makes the situation even more interesting is China’s growing footprint on the island, with significant investments in metal and rare-earth mining projects. Greenland’s strategic location at the crossroads of North America, Europe, and the Arctic makes it geopolitically critical, especially as Arctic routes open up due to climate change and global powers compete for influence and resources.
03 Jan 2026
Amid the holiday mood, we spent some time digging into Nifty’s performance over the past year. Indian equities underperformed most major asset classes, with the Nifty up ~11% YoY, compared with Gold (+64%), Silver (+148%), and even key global indices such as the US S&P 500 (+17.3%) and China (+18.4%). On the sectoral front, Metals and PSU Banks emerged as clear leaders, while Realty and Media remained notable laggards. Foreign flows continued to be a headwind—FIIs were net sellers of ~USD 35 bn during the year and cumulatively ~USD 120 bn between CY21–25.
27 Dec 2025
As we approach the year-end, we revisited our annual exercise of analyzing cash flow generation across large/ mid/ and small-cap indices to identify emerging trends at the index level. Last year’s analysis had clearly highlighted a shift in favor of large caps, evidenced by a sharp increase in cumulative 4-year free cash flows compared with the previous period—a trend that subsequently played out in market returns, with large caps emerging as clear winners.
20 Dec 2025
This week, we delved into the sharp surge in silver prices, which recently touched record highs of INR 2 lakh+ per kg, and explored the key drivers behind this move. The gold–silver ratio has now corrected close to its long-term historical mean of around 66, after spiking to nearly 100 in April ’25, driven by a sharp rally in gold prices. While opinions remain divided on where prices of both metals may settle from here—technical chartists remain highly bullish—even from a fundamental perspective, the current parity between gold and silver appears far more reasonable when viewed against historical averages. Demand for silver ETFs has been exceptionally strong. AUMs have surged to nearly INR 50,000 Cr (from just INR 1,800 Cr two years ago).
13 Dec 2025
This week, we looked into the surge in Margin Trade Funding (MTF), which has climbed to elevated levels and contributed to selling pressure in the last few trading sessions. As of today, MTF stands at approximately INR 1,15,000 Cr, reflecting an 87% CAGR for Mar 2020 to Dec 2025—big rise in absolute terms. However, percentages tell a more balanced story. MTF as a share of free-float market cap remains low at just 0.5%, which, when compared to global markets like China and the U.S., does not seem alarming. Margin funding in China and the U.S. is currently at record highs of USD 320 billion and USD 1.1 trillion, respectively—both exceeding 2% of their free-float market caps (China peaked at 4.7% in 2015).
06 Dec 2025
This week, the big talking point was the rupee slipping to 90.5 against the US dollar, even though the dollar itself hasn’t exactly been shining. So what’s going on? A couple of things. Export performance has been disappointing – not just with the US, where higher tariffs have taken a toll, but also with major partners such as the UAE, the Netherlands, and Singapore. On the import side, higher gold and silver purchases during the festive season added further pressure.
29 Nov 2025
This weekend, we dug into the record wave of IPOs hitting the market and the significant promoter dilution unfolding in the secondary segment. A notable trend emerged: the share of OFS in primary issuances has risen to its highest level, up from ~59% in 2024 to 64% in 2025. This clearly signals that promoters and PE investors are benefitting the most from the ongoing rally, leveraging both primary and secondary market routes.
22 Nov 2025
This weekend, we explored the much-debated question of whether the AI boom is morphing into a bubble – one that’s now worrying the traders around the globe. Comparisons with the dot-com era of the early 2000s are everywhere, but the landscape today is fundamentally different. Unlike the low earnings and cash-burning companies of dotcom era, today’s AI leaders are backed by strong earnings, robust cash flows, and capital spending funded largely through internal cash generation and selective private rounds, not by excessive venture capital.
15 Nov 2025
This weekend, we took a deep dive into the earnings season, which concluded yesterday, and compiled a summary of quarterly sales growth, margins, and profitability for NSE-500 companies. Expectations were subdued coming into the quarter due to extended monsoon, weak consumption trends, and lower government capex. However, the actual results have been far more encouraging. Looking ahead, the second half of FY26 is expected to be even stronger, led by improved earnings from consumer durables and consumption-oriented sectors following GST cuts.
08 Nov 2025
This week in the Insights Unwrapped, we explored global rail networks – spotlighting China’s extraordinary transformation over the past decade. Once lagging behind the U.S. and Japan, China has now taken a commanding lead in high-speed rail infrastructure. Its operational high-speed rail network has expanded from just ~700 km in 2008 to an astonishing 48,000 km today, a meteoric rise that redefined the country’s connectivity and economic potential.
01 Nov 2025
This week in Insights Unwrapped, we explored the rich valuations of Indian startups and MNC subsidiaries, particularly in light of Lenskart’s lofty valuation metrics. One thing is evident — the market continues to reward ‘growth over value’. The question, therefore, isn’t whether Lenskart’s 10x sales multiple is justified by its growth trajectory. Rather, it’s about the promoter’s intent, given that shares were bought back just three months ago at roughly one-tenth of today’s valuation, and the acquisition of its master franchise (DealsKart) occurred at a mere 0.006x sales multiple.
25 Oct 2025
This week, we analyzed Nifty’s All-Time Highs (ATHs) over the past two decades to explore correlations and identify outliers. We found strong correlation between ATHs and Nifty EPS growth in the following year. Notably, as last seen in 2016, 2025 YTD has seen no ATHs, which robust liquidity and improved earnings could change.
11 Oct 2025
This week, we looked a bit deeper into the Constitution of India. At first, it might not seem connected to the economy or stock markets, but the findings were quite interesting. India’s Constitution is the longest written constitution in the world, with over 1.4 lakh words in its English version. Longer constitutions often include many detailed rules, which can make policy changes slow and complicated. This sometimes leads to loopholes and even higher corruption, as laws become harder to manage or reform.
04 Oct 2025
This week, we unpacked the cooling enthusiasm around pre-IPO gains, once a market darling. Even post-listing pops have lost their sparkle—average min. returns for large-cap IPOs (issue size > INR 2,000 Cr) clocked in at -9% returns for the Oct’24–Sept’25 period, a stark reversal from the +37% in the same period last year. High valuations and a wave of promoter exit via OFS are dampening the attraction, with many listings fizzling out amid broader market jitters. Yet, the pipeline remains electric with FY26 stacked with high-profile debuts.
27 Sep 2025
This week, we delved into the sticky issue of corn politics – a key stumbling block in the U.S.-India trade deal. The U.S. corn exports have been declining whereas India has become a net importer primarily sourcing from Myanmar and Ukraine. The U.S. is pushing India to remove the hefty tariffs imposed on corn imports and import U.S.-grown American corn.
20 Sep 2025
This weekend, we take a lighter detour from markets to reflect on last week’s India-Pakistan cricket match, which sparked a heated boycott debate. Digging into history, we compiled a fascinating look at international sports boycotts driven by geopolitics. While our perspective remains apolitical, it’s noteworthy that India has taken firm stances on boycotting games in the past.
13 Sep 2025
This week in our Insights Unwrapped series, we looked at land reforms, which could bring big changes if done boldly. Land makes up about 50% of what the average Indian family owns. Also, 66% of court cases in India are about property disputes, which is a huge issue. To fix this, land digitalization and land registration reforms are underway.
06 Sep 2025
This week’s Insights Unwrapped series explored the consumption surge driven by recent GST cuts, supportive policy reforms, and rising gold prices.
30 Aug 2025
This week’s Insights Unwrapped edition explores the fragility of foreign capital flows, which are increasingly shifting to other markets, drying up liquidity in India. This trend is visibly impacting the broader market indices.
23 Aug 2025
This week, we explored the recently announced GST 2.0 reforms, proposing to eliminate the 12% and 28% tax slabs, retaining only 5% and 18%. This restructuring aims to boost domestic consumption; however, it may lead to a revenue shortfall which is likely to be offset by a proposed sin tax and anticipated demand surge from lower taxes.
16 Aug 2025
This week, our Insights Unwrapped series revisits the US tariffs, which have significantly disrupted global trade, with a pronounced impact on India. Recently, President Trump highlighted that tariffs generated $28 billion in federal receipts in July 2025 alone, compared to $98 billion for the entire year of 2024.
09 Aug 2025
This week in Insights Unwrapped series, we delved into Russia’s rising role in India’s oil supply. The week started with the heavy tariffs imposed by the USA and steep penalties for our economic ties with Russia.
02 Aug 2025
This week, we analyzed the earnings of the nearly 50% of NSE 500 companies that have reported their financials. For all indices evaluated, the sales, operating margin and net margin growth rates for the quarter are lower as have been achieved over the last three quarters, as these are visibly lower than their respective TTM growth rates.
26 Jul 2025
This week’s Insights Unwrapped explored Adjusted EBITDA, a key metric among new-age and tech startups, adjusted by deducting ESOPs to highlight cash flow generation. This practice, while boosting cash flow, sparks debate as it dilutes shareholder equity.
19 Jul 2025
This week, we explored Energy Storage Systems (ESS) – backed by Battery ESS and Pumped Hydro Storage, though investor enthusiasm remains mixed. Last year saw robust growth, despite supply chain disruptions and order delays. Green shoots are emerging on the industry front, signaling potential recovery.
12 Jul 2025
This week we analyzed growth in cash flows at the index level to gauge market trends. A deep dive into fundamentals revealed a significant decline in growth of cash flow generation for both the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500, which may suggest a prolonged consolidation phase until cash flow growth recovery.
05 Jul 2025
With the 09 July tariff deadline fast approaching, global trade negotiations with the US intensify. India remains on the verge of finalizing a deal. Whatever you say for Trump, his knack for bending global trade to his terms is undeniable – love him or troll him, the results speak.
28 Jun 2025
The bigger question: Are these IPOs, coupled with promoter stake sales (Insights Unwrapped Issue of 21 June), a signal of markets peaking? While nothing is certain, the market’s ability to absorb these stake sales suggests robust liquidity, now supported by consistent FII monthly inflows since March’25.
21 Jun 2025
In this week’s Insights Unwrapped series, we delved into surging promoter selling again, reminiscent of levels seen in Sep/Oct 2024. DIIs- largely a proxy for retail money, have been aggressive buyers despite stretched valuations in some stocks.
14 Jun 2025
This week, we explored the BSE’s remarkable market cap milestones, tracing its journey from $1 trillion to subsequent levels over the past two decades, with progressively shorter time gaps between milestones.
07 Jun 2025
This week, we spotlight Rare Earth Elements (REEs), critical for powering new industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy and advanced tech, and China’s tightened export controls on REEs.
24 May 2025
Global markets are abuzz, with bond markets in Japan and the USA drawing significant attention. India, in contrast, remains relatively better. Tarriff tensions are again in limelight…
17 May 2025
This week, we analyzed the ongoing earnings season to shape our investment thesis, cautiously optimistic that most negative indicators are behind us.
10 May 2025
This week, we explored the long-pending UK-India Free Trade Agreement, which is now showing signs of progress. India is clearly stepping up its efforts to finalize trade deals with multiple countries and regional blocs, signaling a shift towards more proactive global trade engagement.
03 May 2025
Prompted by the recent disclosure of an inventory discrepancy at Ramakrishna Forgings, this week we examined critical red flags of which investors should be mindful.
26 Apr 2025
Following the tragic terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India awaits a robust response from the Modi government, with discussions around the potential suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Herein we explore the background of the IWT and the possible economic implications of its suspension.
19 Apr 2025
This week, we explored the fast-growing Quick Commerce space. Ground checks by our team revealed that while the sector, dominated by just three players, is expanding rapidly, questions remain around its sustainability.
12 Apr 2025
This week, we explored the Trump tariffs that shook markets globally and the subsequent rebound triggered by Trump’s unexpected U-turn. The turmoil might have been let to continue if not for an unusual spike in bond yield volatility, which signaled looming recession risks.
05 Apr 2025
This weekend, we explored the historical relationship between gold and silver – and the S&P 500 to gold ratio – particularly during uncertain times like these, when recession fears in the US are mounting.
22 Mar 2025
This weekend, we explored some key insights at the index level – the Sensex 30. While fundamentals and technicals are crucial, ownership patterns also play a significant role in shaping a stock’s trajectory.
08 Mar 2025
This week, we explored whether Tesla’s declining sales outside the U.S. stem from Elon Musk’s political influence or the technological advancements of Chinese EV makers.
01 Mar 2025
This week, we explore the stringent regulations introduced for Indian F&O markets and the ongoing regulatory discussions aimed at curbing volatility and protecting investors, drawing parallel with the cases from China and Korea.
22 Feb 2025
This week, we explored global military strength, focusing on air prowess, particularly following the much-discussed F-35 offer from the Modi-Trump meeting last week.
15 Feb 2025
This week, we explore global and Indian index returns and further give a view of the sector performances in this quarter’s results.
08 Feb 2025
This week, we explored the unprecedented trade tariffs imposed by President Trump, their root causes and the impact on trading partners.
31 Jan 2025
This delves into the insights from divesting stakes by both Indian promoters as well as foreign MNCs, and parallelly draws a picture of FII and DII activity.
25 Jan 2025
Highlights from the Auto Expo 2025 – EVs and SUVs in the spotlight; The event inspired us to dive into Chinese auto industry, exploring its export boom, and the rising barriers.
18 Jan 2025
Dollar Index (DXY) and its impact on Indian stock markets. We explored historical trends and the reasons behind these patterns.
11 Jan 2025
This edition explores the remarkable Maha-Kumbh 2025, an event known for hosting one of the largest religious gatherings.
04 Jan 2025
This weekend’s edition delves into the basis of decision-making by global asset managers.
28 Dec 2024
Cumulative Free Cash Flows and Capital expenditures. We analyze this across large, mid, and small caps.
21 Dec 2024
This edition explores various instances where financial reporting appears vague or misleading—potentially impacting shareholder value.
14 Dec 2024
Over the past decade, India has achieved remarkable infrastructure and operational improvements.
07 Dec 2024
This week’s insights capture some interesting takeaways on Micro financing (MFI).
30 Nov 2024
This week, we delve into how identifying red flags early can provide critical foresight and warrant close monitoring.
23 Nov 2024
With so many unexpected events unfolding last week, let’s shift our focus to the brighter side of liquidity
16 Nov 2024
The key question is- Where is the market headed with the Nifty nearing a 10% correction from its all-time high?
09 Nov 2024
While the world is buzzing about Trump’s win and uncertainty lingers, here’s a data-driven look at key events and trends
26 Oct 2024
Drawing from our industry analysis and insights, we have identified 4-5 sectors with robust tailwinds for Vikram Samvat 2081.
19 Oct 2024
Despite India’s relatively small share in global textile exports, the “+1” shift is increasing the country’s visibility in the market.
12 Oct 2024
CEOs and the Social Media captured our attention amid Ola Electric’s social media backlash.
05 Oct 2024
Not every analysis focuses on the stock market. It’s fascinating to explore constitutions worldwide.
28 Sep 2024
A quick insight on changing consumption patterns in India.
21 Sep 2024
The potential for growth in the nascent Indian wine market.
14 Sep 2024
Exploring Nuclear Energy as a source of clean power in today’s growing energy demand scenario.
07 Sep 2024
High-quality hospitalization care at a lower cost a key driver of Healthcare Tourism in India.
31 Aug 2024
Quick comparison on EV and CNG Sales Volumes in 4-wheelers.
26 Aug 2024
The first Insights Unwrapped edition exploring some valuable insights in the Pharmaceutical Industry.
